Thank you T - im just trying to be even on the debate - I dont...

Thank you T - im just trying to be even on the debate - I dont know when mobile inventories will be depleted (3, 6 or 12 months), we do know that increased supply destruction will take place if the spot continues at $25.....a high cost mine or two will be closed every six months....that speeds up the depletion. On the Utilities reentry to the contract market, its highly likely that as uncovered demand exceeds 25% (add 18-24 months with the fuel cycle) active contracting will occur - which will result in pricing pressures. The more delayed this is the higher the short term demand for contracting and the pressure on price becomes extreme. Thats when $100 spot is achieved within a 40 month period.

In short, the more delayed the price recovery is in the next 12 months, the more aggressive the price response will be when too many Utilities enter the market at the same time. Much like the stockprices of selected pre-production U miners, it will be difficult to get a meaningful position deployed without pushing the stockprice by 100-200%. Therefore I have decided to buy from the point where supply destruction became meaningful April 2018, with the expectation it could be 24-30 months prior to a sustained move in the spot price, but I would have several healthy sized U positions in place to enjoy the 48 month run in the cycle.

Its unique that the more wrong I am with timing the more aggressive the recovery will be in terms of price response and hence likely increased returns.