Disclaimer: this has nothing to do with a charting/TA view of PDN - I did see, however, that this is the general go-to thread for all discussion (rightly or wrongly).
I've been watching and researching UX for a number of months now, with plenty of interest. The general sentiment is that the market is due to turn, after getting fairly well beaten up since Fukushima. I also see that this sentiment has been the case going back 2-3 years, with market enthusiasts claiming UX as their "best contrarian idea" for a number of years. As we know, spot prices have declined substantially over this same time. Nonetheless, with supply/demand due to shift in a meaningful way in the next 5 or so years, and producers globally running at a loss due to the discrepancy between spot price per lb (and the impact that this may or may not have on fixed price contracts) versus average cost of production per lb, it would seem that the UX sector is ripe for a rebound. I'm sure all PDN LTers know this well, so this is nothing new to you all.
This has since brought me to a more defined focus - with my interest piqued in UX, I looked further to local UX plays with analysis of ERA and PDN. With the lease on ERA's Ranger project due to expire in 2021, I decided to look further into PDN. After reviewing results from over the past decade and beyond, I cannot see any strong fundamental reason to invest in PDN. The current cash position is and has always been relatively weak (asset sales/debt/equity raising/other cash injections aside, OCF/FCF has been consistently negative year on year) and accumulated losses have been building for a very long time. Much of the recent discussion has been on the spot price and the poor conditions in the industry. However, and I may be missing something very key, even with record high spot prices in 2007 the company was unable to "make hay", as it were. The only saving grace I can see for PDN is the mineral resource and ore reserve levels. Don't get me wrong, I am still interested in this play in terms of a position trade - when UX rips, it will carry all and sundry with it, even the seemingly poor performers.
There's probably a high chance I am missing something else key, which brings me to my main point. I'd like to ask the resident LTers for your opinion. Why did you invest in PDN to begin with, and why do you continue to hold? What gems can you see in this company?
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