ALA

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14.5¢ arovella therapeutics limited

ah I know this phase well, it’s the “denial” stage...this...

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ditchdigger1

466 Posts.

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20/05/20

19:44

Post #: 44735449
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Originally posted by livas1: ↑

The market (like HC) is full of people looking at the same information and reaching different conclusions.

Thats what makes this whole game so fascinating.

I, like everyone else, was disappointed in the announced delay in the Zolpimist application with the TGA, but I commented at the time that I feel this is short term pain for long term gain.
Clearly not everyone thought the same as me and the share price fell considerably, however on relatively modest volume.

Many on here expressed their dissatisfaction with the new management team and the lack of progress and direction seen. Of course a declining share price is not great for morale. I totally understand that.

While a lot of people rightly focus on the poor performance of the past, the market is concerned about the future.

My take of the current situation is that there is very little good news built into the share price, with pessimism the dominating theme.
My take is that if all the bad news is in the share price, then the share price is poised to move in the other direction.

Then we get today's positive patent news re Anagralide and Japan.
Is it a company making announcement? No of course not. Its a building block.

But when I see people still pessimistic about our Chairman having experience in raising capital and bring cancer products to fruition (if which he is trying to do here) or positive news being dismissed as a push for a CR, then my experience tells me that this is about as bad as it is about to get and therefore the wise thing to do is to take the other side.

I think now is one of those moments for SUDA. It has a tiny market cap, and there is no doubt that it needs to raise capital but it has experienced people with strong connections and a good standing in the investment community steering this ship now.

The market is still focused on the negatives and mistakes and delays (which by all means did occur and I am not trying to excuse) and IMO we have just about reached peak pessimism regarding the company over the course of the last week.

I feel that Anagralide is the main game here and I we will hear more about this in the coming months as they finalise the formulation and move to Phase 1 trials. I think our market cap does not reflect this opportunity at all.

Im banking on us having reached peak pessimism and things improving from here. Todays announcement and associated small share price rise is a nice first step, but there is plenty more to go IMO.

Good luck all

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ah I know this phase well, it’s the “denial” stage...this announcement was not worthy of a 10% increase in share price, straight fact. No BS.

Lying about the refile of the Zolpimist TGA application and coming clean after being called out for it, worthy of a 15% decline - fact. Baked into that decline was a good serve of mistrust.

SUD Price at posting: 4.3¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
6 Upvote

3 Great analysis

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