Pebas, page-4

Hey folk's. I wanted follow up from my previous post ( above ) to explain a little further my view , analysis and supposition that the broader EV metals markets are interlinked and tied back to Nickel Demand .

Apart from the quite separate ' micro ' cycles and the many milestones an emerging spec miner must achieve in hosting an economical mine through to becoming a profitable minerals producer. There is also the ' Macro' economic and mining cycles which we should be all aware. The so called ' Boom Bust ' verbatim used for explaining the cyclical nature of the mining and resources industries in general.

For the moment anyway , we must disconnect our mindsets from only looking at CTM's milestones , further announcements and resource defining progress. Following this disconnect , we have to ask ourselves where exactly do we think we sit using chart comparisons and the hindsight of the perspective in time in terms of the overall ' Macro ' economic backdrop and in turn the overall mining cycle.

One of the most often questions as an investor would have to be ' when can we expect the next big super cycle in mining ?

We should all be aware that commodity super-cycles as they are often referred are defined as decades long price movements in a wide range of commodities. Super-cycles differ from shorter term fluctuations in three ways:
• Super-cycles are demand driven because they follow world GDP
• Super-cycles span a much longer period of time with upswings of 10-35 years, taking 20-70 years to generate complete cycles
• Super-cycles are observed over a broad range of commodities. These commodities are mostly inputs for industrial production and for the urban development of an emerging economy - ie the EV revelution for starters.

The real prices of energy and metals more than doubled from the lows of 1999 and late 2001/2002 to the high in 2008.
After suffering a severe correction in late 2008 (because of the global Financial crisis and subsequent slowdown) and bottoming in early 2009 commodity prices then began to recover – from the low in early 2009 commodity prices have been putting in higher highs and higher lows.
According to research there have been 3.5 non-fuel commodity super-cycles from 1894 to 2009:
I am particularly interested in the last one which has been quoted as being the current one and established in 2001 and still ongoing. The post-2000 episode is the beginning of the latest cycle. This super-cycle shows a continuing strong upward phase.
This is because the most recent boom (from 2001) in global economic growth or GDP, is unprecedented.
“Global growth performance has been attributed as the single most important driver of commodity markets and being most pronounced for metals.
With Trumps ' Rebuild America ' plan only in it infancy with Tariffs being applied to all those who wish to participate , we can then assume the next upturn will be even bigger in what is an increasing overall uptrend in the current ' Commodities Super Cycle ' Driven by huge concerted and synchronized world economic growth largely driven from the development of clean energy, storage and Technologies.
We can see this in the CRB from 1989 through to 2013 below


Upon examining the Cobalt and Nickel charts for similar 13 year periods , we can also see we are within a bottoming pattern and near the beginning of the next uptrend IMO. I believe this to be the case as based on everything we currently know about world economic growth and the overall demand for a myriad of metals , we can easily conclude that the next Uptrend will be bigger than the last one was in 2005 - 2008.




Nickel Price

https://proxy.markets.*.com/cst/MarketsInsiderV2/Share/chart.aspx?instruments=300002,10,0,333&style=instrument_double_precision&period=Maximum&timezone=Eastern%20Standard%20Time

The one thing that continues to stand out for me is the clear fact that we appear to need the Nickel price to rally through 20,000 USD to confirm the next uptrend in the ' Commodities Super Cycle ' and in particular the EV metals space.

My concluding statement would therefore be : - As the Nickel Price advances and goes - so goes the rest of the EV metals pricing. And t the moment it would appear that the slower pace of increasing Nickel prices is actually providing an albeit indirect handbrake on other critical EV minerals - IMO ..... and the Scandium is an absolute and unexpected bonus to the investor .....