You are spot on about funding being a concern for the market. The problem with the 126m @ 3% chalcop & then the allusion to 12-25 a further 100m is that it raised expectations that the 1mt target would be bolted in, fast tracking the whole thing. these boards were full of conjecture like this. with 12-24 head grade coming on at the 0.8is% cu, albeit it a +100m interval, the 1mt will take longer to get. hence why they will need cash.
it used to be that funding for AVB seemed clear cut: 1. $20m in the bank 2. vale money 3. nickel spin-out 4. HGZ etc.
Now it seems that 1 is @ $8m an rapidly reducing (with a much more ambitious drill program needed) and 2-4 is not so certain any more.
so it is natural for the market to become focussed on the cap raising ... which will need to be done in Q2/Q3. below $5m for an operation to size of AVBs would be ridiculous.
i would expect AN to be funded by Xstrata via debt/convertibble notes etc in return for off-takes. so neat and tidy but no free cash for @ least 18-24 mths.
having said all this, i am very confident that this mgt team will get us through to 1mt cu in a canter and will build a mid-tier copper play in the carajas. but unless vale stump up some cash for the i/ore then a cap raising becomes inevitable IMO and then market will remain nervous while this uncertainty exists.
@ 8c, this is priced in though...imo
good luck to the longs
AVB Price at posting:
8.3¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
