Lets see what a difference 4 years can make - I think that's a...

Lets see what a difference 4 years can make - I think that's a long time for fracking improvements (mods that's not profanity lol). One would be hopeful that this is "low case" scenario.

It's a lot of text - sorry - but it does make for some interesting historical perspective. I wont draw the obvious analogies that I think are there.

DOXA Energy - anyone ever heard of them?

http://www.doxaenergy.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=486957&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Doxa-Energy-releases-potential-resource-and-cash-flow-estimates-on-its-Peel...

Apr 6, 2010
" ("Doxa" or the "Company"), today published prospective resource and associated discounted cash flow estimates on its proposed Qualifying Transaction, the Peeler Ranch Prospect ("Peeler" or "the Peeler Prospect"), which is located within the prolific Eagle Ford Shale trend of South Texas. "

Company will own a 20% working interest, together with a 15% net revenue interest in the Peeler Prospect. Gross prospective resource recovery estimates for the Peeler Prospect, according to the "Graham Report" described below, are based on an anticipated 8 well development program and are as follows:

"Best" EUR........ oil - 1,493 MBbls & gas - 14,782 MMscf

"Low" EUR........ oil - 1,029 MBbls & gas - 10,143 MMscf

"High" EUR........ oil - 1,986 MBbls & gas - 20,649 MMscf

Cash flow for this prospective resource, net to the interest of the Company, based on a 5% discount basis, is estimated in the Graham Report for each case (Best, Low, High) at US $19, $10 and $29 million respectively. The Graham Report evaluation has been conducted in accordance with Canadian National Instrument (NI) 51-101, Sec 5.9, pertaining to prospective resources, utilizing forecast prices and costs.

My comment - back in May '10 Brent was about $75/bbl

Doxa's Peeler Ranch Eagle Ford Shale

The Peeler Prospect is adjacent to an area under active development by EOG Resources within the Eagle Ford shale trend. As its Qualifying Transaction, Doxa Energy plans to acquire, at cost, its interest in the Peeler Prospect from John D. Harvison, President and CEO and Arnold Armstrong, Chairman of Doxa Energy (See Doxa Energy news March 29, 2010). The interest to be acquired consists of a twenty percent (20%) working interest and fifteen percent (15%) net revenue interest in the project, covering approximately 2,005.9 acres. A pilot hole for the Peeler Prospect was spud on November 10, 2009 and evaluation of the Eagle Ford Shale formation, which was encountered below 9,500', is ongoing.


Taken from May 25 news release

" Doxa notes than on April 7, 2010, EOG Resources, Inc. ("EOG") announced the results of several wells in close proximity to the Peeler Prospect, two of which are within one-half mile. For the two wells directly offsetting the Peeler Prospect, EOG estimates gross reserves of 258 Mboe and 356 Mboe respectively. In addition, EOG disclosed that their reserve estimates assume spacing of 125-140 acres per well. On this basis Doxa estimates that up to 14 wells could eventually be drilled on the Peeler Prospect rather than the 8 wells assumed in the Graham Report. "

"Doxa management believes the estimates disclosed by EOG clearly support the prospective recovery estimates set out in the Graham report for the Peeler Project and the project continues to be de-risked by the ongoing activity in the trend. "



Taken from Oct 04, 2010 news release

Peeler No. 1-H, Atascosa Co, TX

In addition to commencement of first production from the Epley, drilling operations have just been completed on the initial Eagle Ford well on the Peeler Project, operated by Dewbre Operating of Corpus Christi, Texas. The Peeler Project, in which Doxa owns 20% working interest, is its previously disclosed Qualifying Transaction (see Doxa news, May 25, 2010). The Peeler No. 1-H was drilled to a total measured depth of 13,630', with a total in-zone lateral length of approximately 4,000'. The mud log for the well exhibits favorable characteristics for the targeted lower Eagle Ford formation. A 4-1/2" production liner has been run and cemented in place and the drilling rig released. Completion operations will begin in the near future and Doxa will provide additional updates when available. The Company estimates that as many as 10-14 wells could ultimately be drilled on the Peeler Project.


Taken from May 03, 2011 news release

Peeler Ranch No. 1-H

As previously reported (see Doxa news, March 27, 2011), flow back operations were recently commenced on the Dewbre Operating - Peeler Ranch No. 1-H ("Peeler Ranch") after frac while plans for gas lift facilities are being finalized. In this regard, initial sales of oil and gas have commenced and the well achieved a high rate of over 300 BOPD and 150 MCFPD (325 BOEPD). Offset Operators have reported per well EUR (estimated ultimate recovery) in the range of 254-356 MBOE, which is in-line with Doxa's expectations for wells drilled on this project. The Company further anticipates that 10-14 wells could ultimately be drilled on the 2,005 acre Peeler Ranch lease, based on adjacent well spacing by EOG Resources Ltd. (NYSE) and others. The initial well is continuing to produce naturally pending installation of gas lift facilities, which is expected in the near term. As reported, the Peeler Ranch No. 1-H is the initial well on the Peeler Ranch Prospect, which was Doxa's Qualifying Transaction (see Doxa news, May 25, 2010). Doxa expects to commence the second well on this project within the next 90 days.


Taken from Apr 29, 2013 news release

Eagle Ford Shale Play -- On February 2, 2012 the Company agreed to sell 10.52% out of its 20% interest in the proposed Peeler Ranch No. 2-H well to third parties in an arm's length transaction. Proceeds from the transaction total $847,497, which funds have been used to fund ongoing operations. Doxa retained 9.48% working interest in the Peeler Ranch No. 2-H well, which was successfully completed. Also during 2012, Company management announced its intent to divest of its remaining undeveloped holdings in the Eagle Ford Shale Play in order to intensify its efforts and resources on the continuing development of its interest in the Mississippian Lime Play. In this regard, on July 19, 2012 and August 6, 2012, respectively, the Company closed on the sale of its remaining 13% under the Pfluger undeveloped leasehold and 20% under the Peeler Ranch undeveloped leasehold, both of which are located in Atascosa County, Texas. Collectively, the divestiture included Doxa's interest under 2,565 gross acres (465 net acres) and resulted in sales proceeds net to the Company of $644,293.



DOXA also used CG&A for Reserves.


I think the Mar 2013 Qtrly ought to read
http://www.doxaenergy.com/i/pdf/Doxa_Mar31MDA2013.pdf

I'd be curious on comments:

1. impairment against the capitalized costs based on Reserves report (especially as it was done in Dec 2011 not that long after #1H put into production with "in-line expectations")

2. sale price (Aug 2012) of undeveloped acres for what looks like $1,385 acre (net 465 acres and sales proceeds of $644K), especially as NSE buys the all in Dec 2013.


Things are different this time round, right? We have:

* improvements in D&C techniques,
* costs have decreased,
* price of oil has increased,
* the highly experienced former operator guiding our way,
* debt finance term sheets all lined up ready to go,
* tsunami of cash flow (compared to what we had) from wide open chokes ready to fuel our future Capex D&C requirements

I've run out of good things to say.

It's in the lap of #5H & #6H to deliver.