PEER COMPARISON THREAD....LITHIUM COMPANIES ,THE EV REVOLUTION IS ON !

Originally posted by Scarpa ↑

To correct one paragraph:

vi.. Now same exercise hydroxide because I suspect this is where the PLS product went too - add US$3,000 per tonne processing cost to US$8,870 feedstock cost (see point 3 above) and the cost becomes about US$12,000 per tonne, still meaning hydroxide producer making money. But this is the point, PLS is making about the same amount of money (albeit slightly more) now per tonne of hydroxide produced as the hydroxide producer, but it is the hydroxide producer with the greater capex costs btw and opex costs. If people believe that miners make more money than manufacturers, here been the hydroxide producer, they would be mistaken as it turns the logic to far around because Australia may as well remain a dig and export economy and not entertain manufacturing where capital costs are significant. Where you make money and entrench money is by becoming a hydroxide producer because it is harder to enter that market, because of capex costs and opex costs, than been a miner is my point. Always has been the case.

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Hi @Scarpa .... I think you are correct in the SP6 concentrate not staying as high as mentioned by Pilbara and many pundits. Greenbushes has been ramping up production according to IGO...

https://www.australianmining.com.au/news/igo-tianqi-restart-greenbushes-processing-plant/

Also there are plans to re-start Wodgina in the next 3 years, but not yet because they think it would crash prices. (I agree), but if Albermarle do purchase a hydroxide plant in China, then part of Wodgina would start up..
https://www.copyright link/companie...ut-more-mothballs-for-lithium-20210811-p58hun

Another aspect of the lithium market many are forgetting is how changes in subsidies and economic conditions can change the demand scenario. We had lithium bust 1 from China withdrawing some subsidies, that crashed the lithium companies across the board.

It is a bit naive to think there will be a straight run to the 2030's without some type of major correction somewhere along the line. With all the governments printing lots of cash last year for Covid, at some point they will start to reign in spending, and despite the current boom about IPCC report and possible governments pushing EVs, I suspect that by next year, after a lot of chest beating about what different countries are going to do at Glasgow later this year, by next year, governments will pull back lots of spending because of economic contraction, with spending prioritised to get the economies moving.

In other words lots of climate/EV hype leading up to Glasgow, but lots of doing nothing afterwards IMHO.

Also markets have been in a huge bullish move over the last 17 months now, which will end at some point. If gains from the stock (and property) markets start being lost, with a general turndown in economies everywhere, then demand for EV will also probably fall short of expectations.

I don't think there is any reason for people to be bearish yet on lithium, it is extremely bullish out there, but it will end at some point when people least expect it, so everyone should be aware..