Excellent modelling
@PamplonaTrader, but I disagree with the initial assumption that you've based it all upon - that BAR/CNJ will not pursue the $65 Mil low capex 2012 plan to focus on cobalt. It is that part which makes Mt Thirsty unique and valuable.
Their plan:
Build a cheap mine to get the majority of the cobalt quickly. Sure good to have extra 100Mil/year in Nickel revenue, BUT that they have stated that the mine can be upgraded later to get the remaining Nickel, and obviously a 65 mil mine is a lot faster to plan, finance and build than and 400-500mil mine. The directors are very aware of the need to meet current cobalt demand quickly.
Unlike other Nickel laterite deposits, Thirsty is unique in its oxidised nature, and that a lot of its cobalt sits very near the surface with the Manganese . These things mean that they can get it very very quickly and cheaply. This is their competitive edge, and why Thirsty will be one of the first to mine. They'll start mining while other Nickel Laterites are still years away.
Solarbat
