woah didnt realise it was so quick to go from approval to production. other miners im in takes years. do you have a source for this? i couldnt find anything from the company suggesting imminent drilling, only the early stage deposit estimates which gave me the indication we were still a while away.
if this were the case however, would this sort of logic then follow?
most other helium miners produce 0.1-0.5BCF annually with a few larger operators and 1.5-2BCF.
i read on a company preso that mining contracts are usually 10 years minimum.
assuming this and the estimated total prospective resource of 3.5BCF (P50), it follows that the company would mine 3.5/10 = 0.35BCF p/a.
0.35BCF = 350k mcf.
the last published price average was $280/mcf, although, due to short-supply, current prices are as high as $1000/mcf.
it therefore follows that at an annual production of 350k mcf and conservative price of $280/mcf, annualised revenue would equate to 350,000 * 280 = ~100M p/a.
applying a conservative p/e ratio of 25 (market avg), BNLs market cap would equal 100,000,000 * 25 = 2.5B.
there are ~160M shares on issue. therefore, share price = 2.5B/160M = ~$15 a share.
obviously cap raises will reduce this figure and it will take time to scale to 350k mcf, but, if production started by xmas, perhpas we could expect this level of production within 2-4 years?
ill admit this is far from my expertise and i feel as though i must have missed something as this sort of value would be borderline criminal.
please correct any flawed logic.
BNL Price at posting:
4.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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