GRR 1.96% 26.0¢ grange resources limited.

I can't believe the market doesn't attribute any value to...

  1. 921 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 880
    I can't believe the market doesn't attribute any value to Southdown either. If you do some napkin math, it gets quite silly with iron ore at these prices.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/3168/3168759-6b55c775cb1c942ef784ee52eb04c3e7.jpg

    Using this slide from the DFS presentation, a 18 $us/t increase in 65% concentrate price from 125 $us/t increased NPV by 840m $au.

    With 65% concentrate around 270 $us/t this gives us :

    (270-125)/18 × 840m = 6.76bn $au increase. Plus the 1008m $au initial NPV.

    Total NPV with iron ore prices adjusted = 7.77bn $au

    Add another 10% extra NPV from the current 0.79 AUD/USD exchange rate instead of the 0.85 used in the DFS.

    Total adjusted NPV of around 8.55bn $au.
    Of which GRR currently owns 70% or 5.98bn $au.

    Plus the DFS was done for a 14 years mine life because of the permitted area at the time, when there are enough for around 30 years+ at Southdown.

    Of course nobody expects IO to stay at these prices for 30 years but it's funny to see how little value is reflected in the share price.
 
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