Running some back of envelope bush maths here off the back of the recent announcement re contracted sales
For context, Extract from announcement below:
With the inclusion of this new sales agreement, the Company’s total contractual sales obligation
over the upcoming 10-year period is 6.0 Mlbs. In the LOM Model, the Company projected
production levels of approximately 14.8 Mlbs¹ of uranium during the same period.
.............................
Assuming LOM production levels get fully contracted over the same 10 year period:
Annual production - 1.48mlbs
Contracted price - $80/lb (low end estimate lets say - hard to say with little visibility on term contracts)
AISC - $55/lb (I believe Wayne has reference low 50's as a cost of production but I could be mistaken?)
Margin - $25/lb
Translates to:
EBITDA - USD$37m or c. A$57m at 0.65 fx rate
At current SP and SOI - PE is roughly 4.
My question is when trying to ascribe some form of future SP based purely off value metrics, what sort of PE would one expect the market to value this at? Was anyone around during the last U bull run and if so, what were PE values back then (I understand there are different drivers this time)
As with all forward looking calculations, a lot of this incorporates assumptions but nonetheless keen to compare notes with anyone else? Lets keep it factual though (none of this, "Uranium to hit $300/lb" shenanigans unless you can quantify it, ofcourse)
Thanks team PEN!
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