pen & the gfc, page-2

It affected nearly every stock Waneland. The reason is simple. Margin calls. Margin calls cause forced selling in unrelated stocks, forced selling causes the unrelated stocks to go south, and that causes more margin calls and more forced selling. Ultimately bringing the whole market down.

Same thing could happen again, except it's unlikely that there's as many margin loans out there (certainly not in the USA). A lot of retirees are also still extremely reticent about getting back into the market. I share your views about the GFC not being over, but right now everything we know is known by most of the market and is largely factored in.

Peninsula is different too. I believe that drilling stopped to conserve cash last time. This time Peninsula has plenty of cash, a massive equity loan at its disposal, and banks and JV partners knocking at the door supposedly.

All that said, short answer is that we'd fall with the rest of the market initially again, but nowhere near as far as last time. There were companies that powered through the GFC because they were making such strong announcements. I think the steady stream of announcements through to at least June provides the best insurance policy available.

stochman