PEN

4.35%

11.0¢ peninsula energy limited

Completely agree. Downside risk to PEN from spot price was...

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blue_horse_shoe_999

371 Posts.

10/02/17

21:52

Post #: 22532444
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Originally posted by Gavin917 ↑

Tutes you should know better than that and I know you know better.

Close but no cigar...

a) IN REGARDS TO SP - When spot price goes up, it's terrific for PEN (and all U's across the board) as the sentiment in the industry has an across the board increase. (ie: more $$ flow into U sector and PEN takes its slice of buyers.

b) IN REGARDS TO VIABILITY OF BUSINESS (and inherent risk profile of investment) - When the spot went down, but we had all the contracts, PEN was still somewhat buffered from those headwinds from a outflows/inflow/profitability standpoint (in mooted '17 & '18 years). So the risk of going under was not just limited, but negligible.

In short...we DID the best of both worlds.

So think of it another way.

I) All those other companies that are getting huge uplifts right now. You can name them...alphabetically ACB/AEE/BOE...all the way down the list to XYZ. If this U market didn't pick up for 3 years...I reckon you'd see half (if not more) of them going the way of the dinosaur. All your money to dust.

ii) But irrespective of the u price mentioned above...PEN would have survived.

That would, I believe have been the inference been made by most people making said inference.

And the argument holds water and in fact has a level of sophistication to the logic that insinuates (I would argue) a higher level of investing intelligence rather than a blind punt. This might sound ignorant (if I don't know enough and need to look more) or arrogant (if I'm projecting what I'd like to think about my own self analysis) - either way I don't give a ph*&%...but across the park I can cite perhaps 6-8 PEN regular (and semi regular) posters that I see here a high level of intelligence/sophistication when I reckon I can go across ALL the other U stocks combined (which I do for research purposes) and I don't think I'd be able to find 3 of the same level. There is a clue right there. Good people follow good stocks. And they don't have time horizons of amateurs.

And they have said as much as I have above, all in their own different ways. (ie: that U will run when it runs and PEN has best chance of survival across board)

Don't get me wrong, kudos to those in other U hopefuls that survived and thrived on nothing but shoestring budgets, a 2 man budget, $5m market caps and a CEO flying to his last cap raise meeting with U at $17.50 before to bankruptcy proceedings...but it can also be said they sailed close to the wind and almost lost it all.

Those type of investments hold different risk profiles and perhaps deserve more uplift/reward when/if they survive and thrive - and we should congratulate them when they do. But it doesn't mean we should emulate them. Invest that way long enough and you will lose it all.

It's disingenuous to argue sarcastically that there isn't a logical argument for those words that you've taken out of context.

I think you think you know this, so I won't pretend that you weren't doing anything more than having a light hearted joke.

Cheers

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Completely agree. Downside risk to PEN from spot price was always smaller than the upside potential. I think this was lost on people selling at $0.49. But sentiment is obviously a massive factor.

The price at which contracting takes places at in 17/18 will be interesting.

$26.65, the march continues.

PEN Price at posting: 76.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
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Last 11.0¢		Change -0.005(4.35%)		Mkt cap ! $233.1M

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
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Completely agree. Downside risk to PEN from spot price was...

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