Trof/DAYBUE is very profitable business on low numbers.
US population identified 5,000, at 3,000 patients @ $375k p/p its block buster status drug US$1.12bn in sales to Acadia.
ROW population 7,000 would be great to achieve 3,000 however at 2,000 patients @ $375k p/p ist US$750k in sales to ROW partner.
US deal was originally attractive for Acadia on US$500m peak sales so ROW market is very attractive.
IF NEU can get higher % royalties for ROW then conservative example would be;
As a whole Global patients 5,000 @ $375k p/p = US$1.8bn - 15% royalty = US$281m or $420m AUD to NEU + sales milestones x 2 US$300m or $448mAUD total combined revenue to NEU $868mAUD (approx AUD$520m net profit)
$520m net profit = EPS 4 x 20 P/E = $80p/sh
Very lucrativeairly for all involved with conservative patient numbers as only using approx 40% of the global 12,000 identified patients, I have no doubt identified globally patients will increase particularly due to better diagnosis now and broad labelling of DAYBUE in US alone.
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