At times like these, optimism can seem either desperate or fanciful. I hope that the next few words do not appear either desperate or fanciful...
The most compelling reason for any investor to keep the Ox in his portfolio is that...there will come a flight to asset-based companies as they offer a greater store of value than any other instrument. Owen Hegarty suggests that Oxiana's two asset classes (gold and copper) are worth $13 billion.
Regardless of geo-economic events affecting the global investor marketplace, I do not see this value diminshing. Indeed, it seems that the gold price is widely expected to go much higher in 2005 and I believe that demand for copper will continue to outstrip supply keeping the copper price robust.
Even if we considered lower prices for both gold and copper, Oxiana's cashflow would continue to be extraordinarily strong!
So, whether we regard Oxiana in terms of its asset valuations or its cashflow valuation, I believe that investors might come to realise that they have been "throwing the baby out with the bath water".
When investors have dumped their investment in consumer sensitive stocks, like retailers, and cash sitting is on the sidelines delivers a negative rate of return, investors will eventually turn to that asset class which has been a store of value for more than 5000 years.
because of the size of the gold market, when only a few investors turn to gold and gold shares, the gold price will move up dramtically...when more turn to gold and gold shares, the gold price will spike through $500 per oz...and when the masses turn to gold and gold stocks, the gold price will rocket as it did in the early 1970s.
Today, investors are too busy throwing the baby out with the bath water but in the weeks and months ahead...a new perspective will emerge.
People, it is time to get ready!
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