I thought it would be worthwhile to try and help settle the nerves of what seems to be many new holders who bought on a high and to in advance address any panic that might eventuate if there is no trading halt tomorrow. I bought into BPH in June of last year and have followed its progression keenly since. There have always been two key hurdles to that drill bit biting the sea floor: (1) a saleable political narrative and (2) funding for the drill.
Political Narrative
This is the first hurdle. A failure here and it is game over for PEP-11 and BPH. Fortunately, DB and co have equipped the federal LNP with everything they need to sell this to the broader public and regions that actually matter (to their attempt to win re-election in the next 12 months). The seats off Newcastle are a sea of red already (hence Albo's token appearance to sure up the base) and the libs DO NOT need those seats to win. The seats they do need/want are the marginal northern Sydney seats like Falinski's (Mackellar) and Warringah. This is why you have seen Falinski come out against PEP-11 (arguably tokenly) and local LNP moderate MPs taking up that cry. CCS makes it more palatable to the moderate liberals in the parliamentary caucus while allowing cabinet (primarily KP, Scomo and Angus Taylor) to deliver on their signature gas led agenda. The recent push by Scomo et al for net zero by 2050 only further reinforces this (see also for instance the WA liberal push for net zero much sooner via hydrogen - hint: half the commercially produced hydrogen in the world is via natural gas reforming). The long and short of it is that without nuclear, net zero by 2050 (while keeping our resources economy) doesn't just require a few new gas projects but a metric f*-load of them. PEP-11 offers potential for a quick turnaround time to drill located close to Scomo's planned gas turbine generator and the biggest domestic gas market in the country (all wrapped up in a neat CCS bow to appease the tree tories and give the coalition a club with which to beat the ALP and Greens). The biggest risk is internal politics in the national party (their farming base is vehemently opposed to gas, but we don't want tenements over their farm land we are 30km off the coast) and McCormack will be concerned about Canavan and Barnaby using PEP-11 to force a leadership spill (leaving KP stuck between what McCormack might want and what Scomo wants). At the end of the day KP is duty bound to cabinet to help deliver on the set out agenda and has remained a vocal proponent of gas regardless of the internal nationals friction (its his portfolio after all).
In terms of JB/KP we have a buck passing game from the NSW coalition. The percentage of the population "affected" by PEP-11 is much greater for NSW coalition than for the federal so it makes total sense for them (NSW LNP) to tacitly oppose it and pass the blame up to KP. The long and short of it is that DB has done everything within his power to navigate undoubtedly choppy political waters and IMO has done so with aplomb.
Funding
The cost of exploratory drills continues to drop. BPH is extremely well cashed up considering NOPTA isn't even ticked off and we have agreements (and a contract manager) to advance the process rapidly when NOPTA is done (yes there will no doubt be another raise(s) - this is part of the game). This is a much more minor hurdle and is contingent on the first being overcome, so further exploration of it is best left for the future.
Summary
I am extremely confident that JB will say no (if he hasn't already) and then KP will say yes (giving us the approval we need), it is simply a matter of timing. By creating artificial deadlines like 12/2/21 all that happens is additional FUD is produced and leveraged by swing traders looking to make a quick buck.
This may honestly be one of the most politically saleable fossil fuel projects out there right now and its only its proximity to Newcastle NIMBYs that there is even political wash to be navigated. Stay calm, be patient (I've waited 7 months, many have waited years, you can too). There is no doubt that if (when) NOPTA happens even those who entered at 30c will see a profit and that's before we even run higher into drilling.
Happy to expand on my political takes with any questions in the comments. GLTAH, don't be afraid if the TH doesn't come tomorrow and remember that JB saying no is to be expected (as outlined) and actually a good thing since it means KP is then free to make his decision without serving a notice on JB under section 59 of the Offshore Petroleum and Greenhouse Gas Storage Act 2006.
All IMO, DYOR.
(20min delay)