Good Morning All,
Some of you may remember my handle from when I was heavily invested in ANP from 2019-2021 in which we saw a multi-bag re-rate of the stock, which, we all know, was then butchered by one of the worst capital raising efforts I've probably ever seen in my 20+ year investing career. (One only needs to 'advance search' my nickname on ANP comments to validate)
Fast forward 3 years later and here we are, on the eve of March 2024.
Now firstly, I had a read of the thread yesterday & had a chuckle at myself regarding the conspiracy theories re: yesterday's trading / volume. Let me dispel them all right now, I was about half the volume yesterday & bought over 2m shares. The sleuths can validate this in 2 days time when the broker data is released, my average was around 8.5c.
I have always been a fan of the science behind ATL1102 and the Phase 2A trial results years ago went a long way to validate that. We always needed a pivotal Phase 2B trial which is blinded & in line with FDA guidelines and this is where we find ourselves today.
I have always wanted to get back in to PER (well it was ANP when I was last in) and why now ?
Well...
Biotechs go through a very very long dormant stage in their price discovery lifecycle. This is the period of slim newsflow & whilst there are a lot of things going on behind the scenes, there isn't a lot for investors to be excited about and hence the SP languishes.
PER has imo just been through this phase from Oct 2021 to now.
When things start to get to the pointy end of their major catalysts, that is when major re-rates in share prices occur. One only needs to look at NEU or DXB as classic examples of this. The 'bases' for both these stocks was measured in years, then, all of a sudden, in to a major catalyst, there are multi-bags.
I think PER is now at the very start of this explosive periodThe Pivotal Phase 2B trial commenced mid-last year and as at the last update on 31 Jan, there were 20 of the 45 patients recruited, with the balance expected by the end of March 2024.
Most here are well aware of the trial design, but it is in the pic below:
Now, this is where it gets interesting for me (and I suspect many others).
In Biotech trials, one is always looking for 'tells' along the way regarding the drug's efficacy. Now, given this is a blinded trial, we will never know for sure, but there are always indirect 'tells'.
The first patients which were dosed have already passed the 6mth initial dosing period (this is for the determination of our primary endpoints).
These patients have voluntarily decided to proceed with the Open-Label treatment period and this was a beautiful little piece of information in the quarterly (highlighted below) which many may not have even read, and perhaps those who did, may not have understood its significance. 
Many are across how debilitating and degenerative DMD is and the life expectancy of these kids is unfortunately very poor with death often in their 20's.
The Phase 2A results were 'off the charts' with regards to its effectiveness in slowing down the degeneration of the muscles & in some cases, the patients became slightly stronger while being dosed. (Again, P2A was a small, 9 patient sample and unblinded).
Now ask yourself this - If your child isn't showing any improvement, why would you bother transitioning to the Open-Label extension?Reading this, for me, was my trigger to decide that, on balance, the risk/reward was significant and perhaps the extraordinarily good results from P2A are already being replicated in P2B.
There are also other 'tells'. I know in the case of NEU, there were closed Facebook groups for participants in the trial and they were sharing photo's / video's / comments of the successes they were having. I don't know if there are any specifically for this ATL1102 trial, but it would be worth investigating. I know if my child was unfortunately a victim of this disease & there was a treatment which was showing marked improvements, I'd be shouting it from the rooftops in joy.
You may then ask, this information was released a month ago, why wait another month to invest?
This is a great question and simply, time is money. I wanted to wait as long as possible until the re-rate began to join in. The company has guided full recruitment in March 2024, which would mean the last patients would roll off treatment 6-mths post that date.
Furthermore, Biotechs in general, are in the best place in years across the globe from an investment community perspective. The US Biotech Index has broken out and there are a lot of biotech's attracting a lot of eyes in Australia too. One only needs to see what NYR did yesterday, rising a remarkable 500% in a session. But, more developed Bio's are also demonstrating multi-bag potential and they include (& not limited to) NEU, DXB, TLX
My final comment is this, and one I get asked regularly when discussing large positions. I was aggressive on market yesterday because I wanted size. This is a relatively thin trader (for now) and that will change as we tick off the milestones. But having the position at the size I wanted is more important to me than trying to get 'the perfect entry' and save 4-5 ticks. In my mind, very shortly, it's going to be immaterial.
Apologies if starting a new thread gets anyone off side, but I feel PER is on the cusp of turning it up in it's biggest year ever as recruitment is almost complete and the 6mth countdown clock on the final patients begins.
Happy Investing.
(20min delay)
