Hi Ike501,The 1929 crash is different. It is used as an example...

Hi Ike501,

The 1929 crash is different. It is used as an example of all the things governments should not do when the economy falters. (eg protectionism, cut gov spending, etc)

Everybody seems to be waiting for the economy to improve before reentering the market. IMO the economy is a lagging indicator and will result in missing out on the big swing up. Likewise, the market is a leading indicator and therefore can't be predicted from the economy. IMO the start of the bull market will be first indicated by oil breaking above US$50 and commodities breaking out of their down trends. This should coincide with a rapid fall of the US dollar. If the dollar does not fall (ie ramped back up) then the bull run could be a dud. This is because bull markets are really about instos going short on the dollar and long on commodities. Lets watch closely. Oil looks like having another crack at 50 and copper looks like breaking out into an uptrend. I think that last China stimulus announcement might have done the trick. Time to be watchful while being cautious too I think.

Sure there might be 10% unemployed. But that still leaves 90% there rushing to get the new car, cheap house and other goodies before the price goes up.

cheers
kacy