There is a natural and entirely responsible rationale for taking...

There is a natural and entirely responsible rationale for taking profit in a stock like MBP ahead of a do-or-die event such as the announcement of success or failure of a company's key product.

The case for taking profits has been put forward very ably on this board by pat done, edwardsh and others.

I had estimated the number of potential sellers ahead of the halt as somewhere around 16 to 46 million, on top of the 14 or so million that had traded out in the previous two weeks since the price started falling.

We have now taken out another 10 million plus shares over the last five trading days. That still leaves a lot of shares that might be sold in the next couple weeks, even assuming that the recent buyers aren't intending to resell before the halt (a dubious assumption, I admit). The number of shares that could be placed for sale is easily greater than 5 million and may be many times that number.

So far, speculative buyers have been swamped by cautious sellers. I confess that I had expected stronger buying interest. There seems to be support in the high 70s, but if sellers keep showing up and buyers keep staying away, the price will continue to sink. I think that the past three weeks have seen the shares in full retreat thoughout.

My expectation all along has been that selling would dry up as cautious holders divest themselves ahead of the halt leaving the stock in the hands of strong buyers wanting to hold at the announcement. I still hold this self-evident view, but the trading of the past week has given me reason to re-estimate the number of shares that might be divested ahead of the halt to the upper end of my estimate.

I continue to hold.