+++++++++ Megabear C is the asset deflation wave ............we are prob inside an a-b-c sideways triangular C-4 rally attempt with a short use-by date. C-5 should be the final capitulation wave to as low as 3600 (with overshoots of course) if we dont get lucky.
This asset deflation wave should last thru most of 2009. At the end of it tho, we should be looking for a PRIMARY RALLY WAVE D which the ONLY way I can envisage happening is if they turn up the printing presses by an ORDER OF MAGNITUDE which is what I think these idiots will do ..........MONETARY INFLATION.
So what we should end up with thru 2010 to likely end of the primary megabear downcycle abt 2014 (IMO) is SEVEREST STAGFLATION here in Oz and in the USA in the main, with more deflationary bias in ECB and ASIA cos they tend to be more responsible when it comes to money.
This has been and continues to be the basis of my GORM theory which is now in full swing. So yeah we should have an economy which looks like a depressionary "L" but a RESOURCES SECTOR which will end up looking like a "V" and hitting new heights by 2014 on the back of SERIOUS PAPER BURN ahead ............ so serious they will have to soon start reversing interest rates UPWARDS in a HURRY to prevent WEIMAR mark 2 taking over in the western economies ......... and THAT will ensure the "L" remains long term in the global economies ........ except Asia which will have its own internal drivers staerting to take over.
Hence a SERIOUS long term INVESTOR would look to BHP (from a 12 buck low coincident with AUD low abt 0.47 some time next year) and select golden and radiant Au/U minicap survivors of megabear C and which can hitch a ride in ensuing broader rally D / resources superwave C.
Cash is king in megabear C but fortune will favour the brave and lucky in resources rally driven paper burn megabear D. Of course megabear E later will prob retest the megabear C lows before the new secular bull emerges and prob with a new financial / monetary system in play ....... "globalisation".
I have stuck firm with this theory but cos of my stupid religious belief in CMR did not implement professionally. Nevertheless am still in the game and thinking "why not" and "without fear" , "assuming the worst and hoping (playing) for the best" whilst maintaining a "cash is king debt is death" attitude thru asset deflationary megabear C ........... GORM rules 1 - 4.
I should have written a book but its all on HotCopper for future history to scrutinise .........tho only thing I am interested in is that 2009 is the year that sets it all up for the ride of our lives in resources supercycle upwave C which eclipses primary upwave "A" and starting from whatever level current "B" retrace hits next year .......... BHP 12 (- 8 poss ) bucks. Been waiting for this for coupla years but wasnt wise enough to prepare properly.
The BOOM sectors over next 5 years will be CHEAP ENERGY nad CLEAN WATER and I will be looking to set up for both, tho GOLD will come into play AFTER USDX does its thing and hits techno target 100 - 103 by abt mid next year .........
......... meanwhile yeah, we might indeed see POG hit USD 550 lows ....... but that would prob coincide with AUD 0.47 lows (or lower cos its the third attempt at the L/T horizontal line going back to Mar 1999 and before to Keatings Pacific Peso days). Hate to say this but if resources sector doesnt save the day for the AUD from mid next year onwards, then we may even see AUDUSD down to as low as 0.25 !!!! Wont think that poss YET.
IMBOOC +++++++++++++++
CMR Price at posting:
22.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
