I have never posted any messages on Hotcopper prior to setting up this account, full stop.
I have held Antares shares for something like 20 months, although my current holding is very small (4 figure number), which is how it should be since I regard the stock as a short term sell. I have in the past held a 6 figure number of shares.
Until the AGM presentation I would say that I have been bullish on the company's prospects.
However all that changed when certain things came to light.
The 1st being the fact that production from the Southern Star property was much lower than had been projected, which has multiple implications.
Then there was the Harrison No3 well issue's and the Newbrough No1 well issue's on top of that.
I do like the look of the Northern Star and Big Star projects, on the little information that is available on them.
The Southern Star project looks a very expensive purchase and if production continues to be much lower than projected (100's of boed lower) its value will diminish even more. Thankfully it is only 3100 acres, whereas the other 2 projects are much bigger in size.
Yes if they get things right there is pottentially a lot of upside in this company.
However management do themselves no favours by not openly communicating with shareholders and providing them with full and accurate information.
I am still negative on the company short term, one of the key drivers for Antares share price is going to be hitting the 1000 boed production mark, which sadly to me looks a lot further away than it did in mid May.
The rate of cash burn and how much they paid for the other leases will become more apparent in the quarterly report. I fear this will slow down the rate of developement because production rates and therefore cash-flow are not coming through fast enough to self fund an aggressive developement schedule.
Provided of course that Antares intends to hold them for the longer term, or perhaps they are looking for a quick rise in value and then a sale?
As issues clear up one way or another I'm sure you'll see my stance on the stock change accordingly.
LOTM
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