CRK 0.00% 26.5¢ carrick gold limited

perspective

  1. 924 Posts.
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    Reading between the lines, it now seems that previous mgmt were not competent and wasted a lot of money on poor drill siting, and an outdated resource methodology.

    Uncertainty remains as to why the 2009/10 PFS was never completed on Lindsays. Progress was touted but nothing was ever announced. I don't buy the line it was too expensive to finish. I now suspect it was a combination of dubious economics on much of the resource (the depth, and metallurgy requiring a 90% grind to 75 microns) coupled with insufficient confidence in the resource methodology.

    Since then the broom has done some sweeping. Gold has soared as a safe haven. John Macinstry has taken charge and employed everyone since January 2011. I am quite familiar with him through NQM, but most holders here won't yet have that faith.

    So we have fascinating dynamics at work. A roaring gold sector, very skilled new mgmt, a % of resources to become reserves by 31 Dec - and a falling SP from the understandable exit of disillusioned stale longs sick of drilling.

    As for valuation, let's value it on 500,000 ounces of probable RESERVES by 31 Dec, disregarding all resources and further conversions, cash or exploration potential. I think all these reserves will be open pitable, down to 120m max.

    With 140m shares, every 280 shares nominally buys 1 in-ground economic ounce. For that reserve ounce, the shares cost $126 (at a sp of 45c). Mills are close by, though we don't have our own.

    A bit of a falling knife, though on low volume and no big holders appear to be selling down here. Taken a bite.
 
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