"Your calculations involve a scenario which involves 100% of funding based on CR's. Now with all of the MOU's to date it would appear probable, if not overwhelmingly likely that with 20 Pearls in the air SAS will be receiving revenue of some description."
Yes, my calculation is based on a hypothetical scenario where 100% of funding is based of CRs. There is a compelling rationale behind such assumption and it has everything to do with what it would actually take for SAS to generate any significant revenue. Funding issue aside, to generate revenue then SAS would need:
1. Commercial offtake agreement with carriers and providers.
3. Certainty in build, distribution and services on personal devices.
4. Certainty in build, distribution and services on terminals.
The devices and terminals would need to be funded built, distributed, installed and customer services provided. How much money would be needed? To do that all over the world? To cater to millions of people? Billions?
From the plethora of MoUs that SAS already signed, I understood that none provide any solution to what I think are major issues above. I think people need to realize that SAS is never targeting any market that is already well served by existing services. Instead, SAS target market is one that is untapped due to the lack of infrastructure. In other words, completely new, untested market that never existed in any prominent size previously. So based on that then, it is only logical to assume that revenue is not guaranteed. This is especially so when all if not most of the current MoUs are obligation free. An example would be the MoU with global sat. In that MoU, global sat is not obligated to do anything, absolutely nothing. From what I understand, the rest of the MoUs are also the same whether it is for beeptool, Sat-space Africa and any other, that is all obligation free. So then how can you, twelthman, say that "...it would appear probable, if not overwhelmingly likely that with 20 Pearls in the air SAS will be receiving revenue of some description."? Based on which obligation free MoU? Surely if the technology and business model is as compelling as you imagine it to be then carriers would be ligning up? Institutional financiers also. Realistically, even if SAS get any revenue, how much would you, or rather should you expect?
Like I said, by my calculation SAS would need at least 51 million a year to get 200+ pearls up by 2025. Paltry amount of revenue would not change that and accordingly would not stop SAS from requiring more CR down the line. What is real now is that as of currently, if I am not mistaken, SAS has around 510 million shares for a CR. At 25 percent discount, that would only be able to generate 18 million. That amount would be short of the 51 million needed just for the one year of 2019.
Tell me honestly, twelthman, if hypothethically there is a CR tommorow, knowing that there would be another one coming a quarter after and more after, that would be done at much lower price, would you participate in it? Would the SP meaningfully appreciate taking into account that prospect?
"The main flaw I see in your calculations is that you are not taking into account any change in SP relating to revenue or launching of the Pearls which would be significant. Now we saw the market cap climb well over $100 million with nothing but hype so real satellites in the sky and real cash coming in IMO would see the market cap climb well over the $100 million in which your calculations are all based. This also directly impacts the need, or the extent of any future (hypothetical) shares to be issued."
That is all hope and you are free to do so. In reality, however, the last CR was done at around 25 percent discount at 12 cents. The SP was immediately dumped up to 5 cents now. The money was meant for design, build and launch of 20 pearls. Did management ever explain as to why they didn't manage to build and launch the 20 pearls? I think not. Did anyone ever bother to ask? Do not ask me to do it because I am not a holder. So knowing that, I am curious, then what makes you think it would be different this time around?
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