Just a couple of observations re mining currently and the...

  1. 1,366 Posts.
    Just a couple of observations re mining currently and the future:

    - WPL's Browse is out in it's current form. FYI it is 3 times cheaper for US companies to extract oil from the Gulf of Mexico than it is to get natural gas to market from NW Australia. It's in all likelihood cheaper to even extract shale in the USA which is an expensive exercise.

    - The USA domestic consumption of thermal coal has fallen 30% with the Shale boom, and they are becoming exporters of energy. The economics of thermal coal in QLD with the high AUD have a marginal cost of production right about where the current price of thermal coal sits. That kiddies is a disaster you can unfortunately see in the stock prices of these companies :(

    - Iron ore will be in oversupply soon. China has been in a building boom phase for the last decade. When it transitions more and more to a domestic consumption along with manufacturing it already has, steel demand will fall sharply at the same time when new supply expansion from every major comes on board. In 2014 we will have a glut of IO supply JUST IN TIME for when demand stagnates big time, this = low IO prices.

    - Still have elevated gold prices (and before that very elevated) and gold companies still can't turn a profit.

    - The next major revaluation upward, ie arable agricultural land with access to water is being totally ignored by our govt. We are selling it @ a discount to the Chinese (who actually have some foresight) rather than developing it ourselves during a period where we can lock in ultra low rates for long periods to fund infrastructure and feeding all of Asia to cushion the blow once this mining boom ends.
 
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