An interesting talk, good find Mpk1980. The Canadian juniors that were discussed were Giga and Cobalt 27. We can make a comparison with ARL. I'll post my understanding but glad to read what others think.
Firstly, Giga has a resource of roughly 2 million tons nickel and 100,000 tons of cobalt (maybe double that if they add compliant and inferred). It is one of the largest sulfide resources in the world, but I don't know the grades. It is not currently mining its resource (not sure what stage it is at). ARL has about double the amount of nickel and 4x the cobalt.
Cobalt 27 is a different type of company - it buys streams of cobalt from producers and near-producers (i.e., offtakes), and "stockpiles" the cobalt then sells to the battery market. You can visit the Highlands Pacific site to see the poor deal that HIG shareholders got for agreeing to deal with them. At first they thought they had a great deal, then they got a low ball takeover offer which shareholders are voting on at the moment (I don't know the full details). The backroom deals by big shareholders have undermined longterm holders.
So amigos, my understanding is that ARL (like other nickel/cobalt juniors in Australia) needs to be patient until the demand for EV battery class 1 nickel and cobalt reaches a pressure point. If ARL acts too quickly and takes on massive debt or enters into uptake agreements with companies lke Cobalt 27, we will be taken to the cleaners. Unfortunately, being patient may result in a flat shareprice (unless ARL unearth's amazing gold drill discoveries, fingers crossed). But when the pressure point comes, the market cap of ARL has to grow to a realistic amount. I'm guessing 10x higher than today is not unrealistic. The interview estimates that the timeframe for switchover from ICE to EV is about 2024-2025, so the pressure point is likely to occur a couple of years before that - maybe 2021-2022. But things could happen quicker than the best judges can predict.
ARL Price at posting:
46.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
