ARL

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50.5¢ ardea resources limited

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NegativeInvestment

1,148 Posts.

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14/04/18

22:11

Post #: 32460142
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Originally posted by boughtearly ↑

Hi Neg,
The disappointment is real, but there are some factors and upside that should not be discounted. The 2.25MTP base case is well under way. With that there is the possibility of parallel trains, which could double production again. How does 4.5MTP sound? It might not happen, but it is being investigated, and with the right partner, anything could happen.

Upside options being assessed, including higher throughput/shorter autoclave residence time, multiple parallel trains, mineralised neutraliser optimisation, and scandium production.

Also, the PFS was released at a time when our small cap competitors were being heavily scrutinised by ASX and ASIC. Even CLQ has delayed DFS pending new data that may bring their C1 costs in line with ARL. A PFS needed to get through without too much hype, as that is exactly what the watchdogs would be looking out for. So a company worth $140 million might attract a lot of attention if it claimed to be in annual production worth billions in a couple of years. (I wouldn't buy it if I didn't know ARL fundamentals). The management is being conservative, and that has impacted on the share price. However, this is only in the short term.
Do also keep in mind that there would need to be between 6-10 million shares sold to redeem the outstanding options in the next 6 weeks. We have been trading around .5 million each day. We have about 25 trading days to 31st May. So apart from the normal buy/sell daily movements in any stock, we have doubled our number of sellers to buyers over this period. This is why we are hurting, no doubt. But come June 1, there will not be the current brake on the price. Our short-term enemy is our long-term best friend, we have a very very small share registry. We all get a bigger piece of this pie, just be patient.
IMO
DYOR
BE

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I did say the short term didn't look good (my crystal ball is cloudy beyond then). The PFS will start to look better as they put in higher tonnage options and incorporate neutraliser resource, platinum etc, but I'd argue that the PFS wasn't complete without them in the first place.
Last edited by NegativeInvestment: 14/04/18

ARL Price at posting: $1.02 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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Last 50.5¢		Change 0.025(5.21%)		Mkt cap ! $100.8M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
49.0¢	52.0¢	48.5¢	$19.80K	39.06K

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	2464	50.5¢

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
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