LFP certainly stole the limelight last year but we might...

LFP certainly stole the limelight last year but we might consider that if such a lower cost alternative had not presented itself that the overall uptake of EVs and the subsequent building out of the charging network ( still a decade or more away from being truly user friendly even in geographically smaller nations such as those in the EU ), would very likely have faltered.

Even after 26yrs since the Prius was introduced the world is still getting used to the whole idea. The fact is that nickel usage in batteries is still growing & in light of advancements such as the high nickel single crystal cathode which can be produced by existing battery chains at a lower cost than what’s being pumped out today we see that companies like Ardea have a big part to play moving forward.

Especially when we consider the various levers that are being applied, as Giovanni notes.

There is the IRA but also the FEOC rule which will really
kick in come 2027.

2027.. 3 years after Ardea & its potential partners may have started their DFS. 1 year or more after they may have started to build a mine and plant. About the same time that mine and plant could be up and running.
About the same time Sumitomo plans to be producing more cathodes which of we go by what’s already happening would go to Panasonic and then in to Tesla vehicles.


Also, we should note, around the same time Toyota- still the world’s largest automaker and holder of many times the number of battery patents that others do - looks to start scaling up production of their nickel using solid state batteries. Add a single crystal cathode to that? Economies of scale/energy density may very well bring back a lot of market share to the nickel side of the table.

Also we shouldn’t dare forget Mitsubishi, with its strong presence in the light to medium truck sector. A solid state battery- already at least double the energy density by battery size- plus a better cathode could really improve the appeal of EV/hybrid trucks to the end user. Even existing batteries with that better cathode would help improve the economics of those trucks.

My money says we should do quite well here.