Depending on the financial and exch rate interpretations as revealed in the latest formal report, Burt's figures might be as much as 15% lower.
Per BHP Dec 2023 H1 results presentation (p.10), the EBITDA margin for Ni was
minus 24% on the avg realised price of USD18,602/T.
This means that the AISC came up to USD18,602 x 1.24 = USD23,066 (AUD34,600, at 1.5 exch rate).
Nickel West to be placed on C&M until 2027...
Raises a few questions:
- What intel does BHP now possess that is more accurate than the previous ones relied upon to invest $'Bs into Nickel West a few years ago?
- What does BHP know about the sustainability of Chindonesia's Ni mining beyond 2026?
- Is BHP watching/waiting and planning predatory moves on ARL in anticipation of impressive results from drilling out Kalpini's NiS tenements by 2027?
M&A possibility...
Might BHP make a move to just take us out at $10 per share by end-2025 (post-DFS)?
That's only $2B, is a much better Ni investment, and costs far less than what has been squandered to-date on Ni West with its less economic ore.
LT shs might also wait for $25 ps offer (equiv. to $5B NPV), but that will only eventuate with a fully operational mine,
and a JORC-compliant NiS MRE to compensate for the 50% Goongarie laterite Ni ore to be owned by the JC. Earliest timeline for this achievement is likely 2027?
$10 or $25, at least LT shs have lucrative options on planning their CGT.
