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Giovanni33

2,525 Posts.

640

17/07/24

03:29

Post #: 74784160
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Originally posted by schmunzel75: ↑

I have been silent for a while....super busy with work. But I have been accumulating....and reading your good posts, LTHs. You know who you are.
Relaxing on the pebbly beaches in Southern Europe....nothing like the endless sandy beaches of Australia....but still very nice.
Geez, you gotta love the current market condition and apparant inability of the market to grasp the full extend and significance of this deal.
How the the SP is not $2 is beyond me. But I am not complaining. I just keep buying small parcels.
Lets hope there is no cheap TO coming any time soon.

ARL = KPN plus all other projects and tenements.
MC = 103 Mil AUD
35% interest in just KPN for 90 Mil AUD -> DFS
+15% interest (50% total) in KPN if progressed to FID (access to competitive debt financing)

The SP and MC has basically returned to its pre-deal levels.

Simple maths would put 100% interest in KPN at 257 Mil AUD. Yet our MC is 103 Mil AUD....which values all of our other tenements to the negative tune of -154 Mil AUD.....crazy market!!!

This deal is a massive derisking of KPN and all other current projects. Large parts of the 18+ Mil AUD can go into drilling and metallurgy works for unlocking futher value. In the meantime, the DFS moves along independently....and I keep buying, hoping the market keeps on sleeping for a little bit longer.

If the DFS can prove the OPEX numbers in the low 6000 USD/t (maybe even below 6K due to the 10% tax rebate), things will get spicey for sure.

Everything else happening with non KPN projects is going to be icing on the cake.

Tick Tock.....

Expand

Agree entirely and good luck with a TO, they would only get enough votes with a very respectable offer. Top 40 is too smart and too sticky to let this go. Games won't work on them.

ARL Price at posting: 50.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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