ARL 6.25% 37.5¢ ardea resources limited

Pertinent market/industry news/articles, page-5656

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    One can say that the PFS document has kind of morphed into the KNPL newco.

    What we know so far:
    ARL owns 65% KNPL (for now), the remaining 35% is owned by the SMM/MC SPV.
    ARL relinquishes another 15% KNPL to SPV on successful completion of DFS, confirming FID and securing cheap (very likely Japanese/JOGMEC) financing by SPV.

    The variables to consider:
    Capex is $3.2B. This should legally be KNPL’s.
    ARL’s share of capex cost is 50%, meaning $1.6B.
    The above is without considering financing.

    If the total financing secured is ideally $2B, then ARL’s share of chipping in additional funds is $600M.
    Of course, other scenarios are possible, such as $1B, or $3B.

    How to raise $600M?

    1. SP has to re-rate substantially. One trigger is to DFS, FID and securing funding by SPV.
    2. Additional non-KNPL JORC compliant substantial MRE has to be announced.
    3. When (1) and (2) above are achieved, then we can estimate the no. shares to be issued, or the amount to be used as collateral to get bank financing.

    Hope that helps.
 
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