All valid and persuasive points as raised by Mick, Squash, Burt and MRex. We can only hope for the best and speculate about ARL's potential according to our own risk appetites because nothing is written in stone yet.
Just splitting some hairs to highlight the unknowns...
Which comes first, FID or capex financing? The wordings in ARL's Cooperation Agreement table above does not make a clear reading. Some companies, for example RNU, secured approx. 50% capex financing but has yet to reach FID even after a year.
AP indicated that there will likely be a debt & equity combo in the capex financing. Does the term "equity" refer solely to what is generally understood, being shares to be issued to raise cash? Or does it also refer to the relinquishment of an additional % of Goongarie MRE in lieu of cash? ARL has used this strategy for the DFS. How does the latter option enable KNPL to pay the capex bills? What is the most likely ratio of debt:equity? MRex's view is 70:30, my guess is approx. 65:35 (2:1). Does "assist in obtaining debt finance" mean securing 100% of the debt portion in the capex finance? What if only 80% of the required debt finance is secured? Will ARL then say "Not good enough, go back and ask for more or no addn. 15% for you"?
ARL seemed to have some level of political support from the State and Fed govts. How much will they chip in to assist ARL with financing? The govts can make the terms and conditions harsh though. Maybe it's like giving with one hand and taking away with the other; all just an empty political show of support for the green energy industry. LTR had to step away from the Govt-plus-bankers financing deal because of high interest rates.
RED might have deeper insight arising from his communications with the BOD.
ARL Price at posting:
37.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
