It really depends on the dilution TBH. If the project goes ahead...

It really depends on the dilution TBH. If the project goes ahead and the consortium takes 50%, half of 800m EBITDA a year = 400m and then subtract royalties and more. If consortium takes 75%, that's 200m a year.

So if you go off the 75% amount and consider payback is just over 3 years, after the third year of production (if everything goes well) ARL would be looking at more than it's current MC in cash flow. For the next 37 years after that. Markets are forward looking so expect that to be incorporated.

Then there's all the other assets and land ARL has which is very interesting but as a junior, cannot adequately exploit. ARL would be able to develop/explore those assets and retain far more of the value there.

I think if this deal goes ahead in almost all circumstances ARL would be a billion + in a conservative estimation. But this is just my opinion, not financial advice and you should make your own determination.