Hey @ClockworkSmurf Mate good to see you contributing more...

Hey @ClockworkSmurf Mate good to see you contributing more regularly. Its a tough time for the battery materials across the board.

Lithium concentrate down below US$1000, LME Nickle at 16K, Graphite , Cobalt all suppressed

As they say "The cure for low prices are low prices".

On the supply side - We are already seeing a supply side response (voluntary or forced)

- Panoramic, Ravensthorpe, Core lithium have succumbing to low prices (Forced)

- Syrah, Lynas, IGO all cutting production/stock piling.

- Jervois, Develop - delaying projects until price improves

- And a whole lot of developers have been forced into delays as investors wont commit capital in this environment

On the demand side

- We saw some of the highest export figures from Chinese Car manufacturers - Circa 5million cars exported from China flooding the world with cheap ICE. Among those 5million were growing number of EVs as well leading to BYD now overtaking Tesla.

- Close to 14 million electric cars sold in 2023 a number that is rising exponentially

- ESS seems to be finally picking up - albeit off a low base but expected to catch up fast

I am of a view that these Demand and Supply forces will really collide once China starts to pick up OR few more giga factories in US/EU comes on board (which is not going to happen yet). That collision will pave the way for the next explosive price cycle.

We are at the cusp of a demand driven super cycle! and that is why the deal flow are still very strong. BYD/Sigma, PLS/Gangfeng, CanadaNickel/Samsung - to site a few outside of what our beloved Chris & Gina are doing.

And then the Macro

One one hand the fears around inflation and rising interest rates are finally dissipating; While

The growing tensions due to Middle East and Taiwan election results are taking over as Risk #1. Lets not even mention Trump as that can spiral out of control very fast (i.e. it only attract kind of idiots who believe climate change is a hoax). I just got back from the mountains in Nepal and guess what there is hardly any snow on the peaks - Its the winter season!

There is a high risk of "Black Swan Events" which is sure to keep our markers very very volatile in 2024