TFC 7.42% $1.31 tfs corporation limited

Perusal of the 2014 annual report

  1. 119 Posts.
    Exciting times for TFC shareholders! From a sub-50c share price in mid 2013 up to $2.20 then a -36% swoop down to $1.40.

    Had a look at the 2014 annual report and there were a few things that caught my attention:
    1. Page 3: reconfirmed that the board will refinance the $US150m of 11% notes. Will cost an 8% premium ($US12m) but should drop interest expense (and cash outflow) considerably...I would guess TFC could get a ~7% interest rate which would see annual savings of $US6m and boost FY16 cash profit.
    2. Page 7: land bank is 1,133ha which is <1 year of plantings. Company no doubt is looking at new purchases, so there will be a solid chunk of cash spent to rebuild inventory
    3. Page 21: Board expects positive operating cashflow in FY15....company must treat land purchases for Wholesale investors as an Operating, not Investing cashflow item so even assuming a land-bank refill there should be pleasing settlements over the year.
    4: Page 23: 150ha of 2005 & 2006 plantings saw higher mortality; so 2020 and 2021 harvest proceeds will be impacted a little.
    5: Page 23: 35ha from TFS2 is expected to yield same heartwood as 109ha of EKS Project. Didn't appreciate TFC's first effort at planting (i.e. EKS) was that bad
    6: Page 26: Directors got an apology!
    7. Page 48: note TFC only recognises revenue from a Wholesale investor when title of plantation is transferred
    8. Page 64: $10.1m of +90 days debtors vs $1.5m pcp. Oh well, at least these debtors are secured by sandalwood trees
    9. Page 70: Auditors are using a "market price" of $US2,500/kg. Does anyone know where this "market price" comes from, and how TFC prices achieved will impact this? Will the auditors need to consider a $US4,500/kg price in FY15? Also using $A/US1.06 vs $0.86 at present...see an uptick in NTA over the year.
    10. P100: CEO Frank Wilson was one of the key High Net Wealth investors with a 215ha purchase vs total HNW sales of 659ha...or in other words 444ha was invested by individuals outside of the company.
    11. P100: The details of the put option indicate the value of plantations is expected to increase from $66k/ha in 2014 (i.e. 215ha for $14.19m) to +$90k/ha in 2018/19 (175ha for $15.80m). Compound appreciation is expected to exceed 8%

    Not sure what new news will come from the AGM given the Galderma launch has been detailed. Maybe an update on settlements or yield outcomes from the 2014 harvest?
 
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