Pick a number and roll the dice! Very uncertain here!The sp...

Pick a number and roll the dice! Very uncertain here!

The sp might be in a no win situation short term:

If RC has his way and MF & co are dumped, it will still take some time to redo the deals - maybe not till next year after the EGM and this may make a lot of investors nervous re Crux. Some of the big investors supporting the board may decide to get out or short the sp in the short term.

If RC does not win (the likely scenario I think at this time) his supporters may start to pull out & the sp will more than likely drop until they are done with their selling.

However, the "Crux" of the matter is that regardless of which side wins tomorrow, both sides have to get the crux deal over the line before christmas to inspire confidence. The value of the company once this is done is still there. RC might get the sp up more in the short term with his echuca farmin, but imo, it may be at some cost to the longer term value.

Whichever way the AGM goes, if the sp drops many will see it as an opportunity to hoover up more shares in anticipation of a good profit before the end of 2011 with crux fid and financing - so the extent of the drop will likely be much more limited than when RC pulled out. As the time for finalising a deal on Crux moves closer the sp should recover anyway.

The clincher for a quick rise in the sp would be for the board to surprise us all and announce tomorrow that they have closed a deal on Crux. That would put an end to the whole saga. Do fairy godmothers actually exist?

imo Kwai is wise to keep no open positions during the meeting. I expect many others will do the same. It will be interesting to see what happens.