At the end of every year a bunch of people come out and say basically "things have changed, this is the year you'll have to be active and selective". Next year is always the year to be active.
The market does a pretty good job most years and in the year ahead about 50% of actives will still underperform, the problem is you don't know which ones.
That's why indexing is the best choice for most investors, not because you get amazing returns, but because if you have the discipline to do nothing you'll end up beating most investors by not making mistakes.
Exhibit A: Now you've got all these donkey financial advisers who thought Hamish was jesus now jumping off him and going somewhere else, how the hell would they know who will beat the market next year? Hamish is as likely as anyone else to outperform next year and if he does they'll probably all come running back costing their clients more in taxes and trading costs.
Exhibit B: Most of the investors in ARKK Innovation arrived after the monster gains: https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1071658/arkk-an-object-lesson-in-how-not-to-invest
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Peter Lynch says the move to passive is a mistake, page-2
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$8.41 |
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 5667 | $8.39 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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$8.41 | 15509 | 3 |
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1 | 144 | 8.290 |
1 | 4000 | 8.260 |
2 | 14848 | 8.250 |
1 | 188 | 8.180 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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8.420 | 4500 | 2 |
8.450 | 20800 | 4 |
8.500 | 1377 | 2 |
8.520 | 440 | 1 |
8.550 | 122 | 2 |
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