I think that everyone is forgetting a couple of things in relation to the vaccine:
1. It is going to be a logistical nightmare to vaccinate everyone in the first place. From what I have heard, it could take years.
2. Good luck convincing the majority of the population that it is safe and getting them to willingly be injected. This is going to be the hardest thing to overcome and I don't think that the market has factored it in. You need to have the majority of the heard vaccinated for a vaccination to truly control the disease. My bet is that the general population will not be convinced that it is safe, therefore they will not be able to get the dosages out as quickly as anticipated.
3. It's all well and good if there is no adverse effects on a very small trial population, but wait until it gets out into the mainstream population, it will really test things then. And even if it doesn't cause any side effects, mark my words there will be people that draw a line between the vaccine and some other ailment.
The market is sooooo reactive, it's insane.... Think about it people.
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