pfs calculations

ok guys,

as announced before, I like to publish my calculations based on todays PFS release. First I give you the EXCEL sheets for a standard case that is based on the average of the given commodity-prices and the published operating costs. (all figures are in A$)

calculation of a NPV

The discount rate is set at 10%




Based on 70m$ revenues and a hurdle rate of 10% the NPV is 212.6m$ or 2.36$/share (with 90m shares FD - further 35m shares to be issued). At 60m$ revenues and the same assumptions the NPV comes down to 144.5m$ or 1.50$/share. At 50m$ in rev. the NPV is 76.3m$ or 0.85$/share.

Look at the IRR. Mostly due to the low Capex the IRR is very high with 93% (70m$ rev), 68% (60m$ rev) and still 42% at 50m$ revenues.


calculation of NPAT and payback

please find the assumptions below. All figures in A$





As you can see the payback at a 50:50 debt:equity financing will be just under 2 years in the 70m$ case. This goes up to 3 years with 60m$ rev and 4 years with 50m$ rev. Of course GXY could increase the payback quote (calculate 50% of Free cash flow).

eps are 0.23/0.24$ (70m$ rev), 0.15/0.16$ (60m$ rev) and 0.07$ (50m$ rev.) the break even in this calculation model is about 42m revenues.

In my opinion the market over-reacted here and the management delivered a viable project with a lower tan expected strip-ratio of just 3:1 and capex of just 40m A$. I think we'll see some more good news on drilling in the next weeks/months and let's not forget about the Schoemkaer potential.

Discussion is welcome !

Lenni