I am working off an expanded fully diluted cap base of around...

I am working off an expanded fully diluted cap base of around 800m shares after development financing. This assumes that approximately half of financing is via equity dilution (straight equity or convertibles). I then valued the stock on around 10 times cash flow which gives us a valuation of $4.5 per share. The coal price year one is forecast at $95pt and I reckoned this is likely to prove conservative. Also more reserves will be proved up and then and it is likely tat this will also improve the mining dynamics, so I added a bit on for both these factors, eg a sp around $5. I know this is all crude, but I don't actually think it is valid to try and get more specific at this stage given all the variables. However, I beleive I am in the right ball-park. Analysts will start producing notes in the next month or two discounting all this back, eg giving current values of $2-$2.5 etc.

For my own purposes, I only want to know roughly where I am going with this stock. Clearly the huge multiple percentage jumps of the past 12 months are over as the development project matures and de-risks. However, as stock that is likely to return 50%+ over the next two to three years is very well worth holding in my opinion. Hope this helps,

G