hi everyone, was wondering if anyone had any sums, technical info, speculation etc etc to share on the upcoming PFS? i was doing some sums with the good folks over on the PLS threads recently and thought i would share the info to see how it stacks up (lest my new friend
@Germantheologist think i'm deliberately misleading people), and generally get a conversation going about the potential value of KDR, not so much the price...
I had a look at all the KDR announcements, and it seems they are planning a 2mt facility. I was hoping for 5mt, but the latest deutche bank presentation is still referencing 2mt production figures, and there is no mention anywhere about selling excess spod, so ill assume thats all they have on the cards.
the following info comes from
@binwood over at PLS, who was very helpful with the technicalities of the conversions and capacties.
i have copy pasted their replies on mine/refinery capacity and refinery Li20 conversion here as i found it very useful, and something i haven't been able to find anywhere else.
"They don't need 5Mtpa to feed the refinery. The mistake you made is assuming that LiOH is assuming 100% weight which it is not. The stoichiometric ratio is about 5.93 tonnes of 6% SC for 1 tonne of hydroxide. So allowing for conversion loss that comes out to be something like 7 tonnes. Therefore 44kt of hydroxide would require about 310kt of spod which will be bang on for KDR grade and recoveries."
the oct scoping study has figures of 288 000t of 6% spod, mined with a 1.4%grade and a 60% recovery. Im assuming the PFS should outperform that, with the grade already at 1.5%, and 60% being a low recovery compared to the PLS and AJM concentrators.
"I find this a really useful resource:
http://rocktechlithium.com/lithium-conversion-table/
So to use an example. We take our 6% SC which really means the concentrate holds 6% Li2O. Using the table above the actual lithium content is 0.06 x 0.464 = .0278.
Using the same table the Li content of Hydroxide is 0.165. Therefore 0.165/0.0278 = 5.935x the Li content.
As such I round up to 7 as it is a nice number but also 5.935/7 = 84.8% recovery rates from the refinery. They might fluctuate a bit higher or lower than this but c. 85% recovery tends to be a good rule of thumb."
You can follow the same process for Carbonate.
so basically you need 7 tonnes of 6% spod concentrate to refine 1 tonne of lithium hydroxide.
so a 44 000t refinery will require 44 000 x 7 = 308 000 t of 6% concentrate
learning that, i worked this out, and this is a direct lift from my PLS post
i took a $205 prod figure for spod, (taken from KDR oct 2017 scoping study), and assumed an optomistic $955 selling price, (which in 2021 is probably unrealistic, but i used the same figures for PLS so apples to apples).
assuming KDR can produce 310kt from their 2mt facility, and get 50% of that
155 000t x $750 = $112.5 mil spod revenue
then KDR gave a range of $2500 - $4500 refining costs in their presentation from July last year announcing the JV with SQM, so ill assume middle figure of $3500 for refinery costs. if we assume a selling price of $15 000/t for hydroxide, this gives $11 500 revenue from refining,
$11 5000 x 22 000t (50% of refinery output) = $253 000 000 refinery revenue
wth total voodoo revenue 0f USD $365mil x 1.25 for AUD conversion = $450mil
these numbers are of course voodoo, based entirely on assumptions, without any technical or business experience backing them (except maybe binwood, i dont know them personally). we can adjust the spod and concentrate sales figures to whatever projections you like, just thought they were interesting for comparisons, and seems like a vague estimation of revenue at any rate.
im still really vague on operating costs and how all the accounting will manage the revenue into owner earnings if anyone has any insight into that?
the big elephant is obviously the debt burden KDR is looking at. the JV provided $80mil ish, which they were hoping to be their half of the mine build, but PLS were over $200mil for their 2mt facility?
also the capital to build a refinery in tandem? ive seen $700mil mentioned for the cost of Tianqi's build next door, so that would imply KDR will need at least $350mil, wondering where that will come from and how that affects revenue? (T/O the obvious answer, but Prepayment? perhaps with das auto?)
also wondering if we have any technical types in here who can enlighten us on the upcoming shennanigans of mine construction?
same again for refinery construction? im assuming building a refinery, while your building a mine is no easy feat?
any who, enough from me, hope you all have a great weekend
would love to hear any other info any one has to share.
