Thanks Richard, Isee so officially the takeover bid fails. It...

Thanks Richard, Isee so officially the takeover bid fails. It depends what you mean by “fail”. This was an unconditional bid, so RG keeps the 87% he has got. I’m sure RG is furious that he has not reached 90% (which is his fault for being too mean) BUT on the other hand he has been able to increase from 50% to 87% and he paid a very low price to do so, so he’s probably pleased about that even if he doesn’t want to admit it.

He can't buyanything for the next 6 months, and if he does so, I won't bra surprise to seeif he won't rack the price to $1.80 on the market and still get to no where. This is a very difficult point for his bid strategy. In six months time, he is allowed to buy, but that assumes that there are holders who want to sell, and sell at a price that he is willing to pay. I expect that the market for PGH share will have low liquidity in the next 6 months, and also from December when he is allowed to buy. The bid dragged on for nearly nine months: all the holders who are left have had plenty of time to consider, and have decided that they didn’t want to sell at 84c. After all, RG sent them at least 14 docs bullying them to sell and they still didn’t do so. RG’s situation won’t change from a strategy aspect if he buys more and only gets to 89.9%. It’s only when he reaches 90% that he could use 664A, and even that is subject to several difficulties that I mentioned earlier. If he chose to use a s661A bid instead that will only work if he had got TIC and other big holders onside, if he knew what they would accept.

Given all this,if I was RG I would NOT buy on market (in 6 months time). There is no point in doingso unless he can get at least 4m shares to hit 90%. I believe, as others havesaid, it’s very unlikely that he could buy 4m+ shares, unless it was at a hugeprice. This is not a normal market now. The vast majority (perhaps all of them) of the shares are now held by people who certainly did not want to sell at 84c, and they have had ample time to think about what they want. It would be silly for RG to buy on market because it would drive up the price, even for say only 0.5m shares, which would tend to distort what shareholders would eventually seek to get this wrapped up, and it would be something that an expert’s report would at least have to comment on.

Like you said, his other chances is to get over 12months to open another bid, but this time without TIC founders approval, hecan't CA right?

He could bid again after 6 months. Under a s661A bid he couldn’t do CA without TIC support. Under a s664A move (not a takeover), he might be able to do CA without TIC support but it would get very messy, require an expert valuation and TIC and others could object to the Court. Unless TIC was holding out for a crazy price I doubt that the Court would sympathise with RG, especially if there several hundred other holders refusing to sell. Thus either way RG will eventually have to find out what TIC (and the other 3 or 4 big holders) will demand before he can move to 100%.

He may try to delist it, but given 3 top holdersend, especially TIC founders, I doubt if they worry much about it. So is itfair to say by ignoring the issue of delisting for another topic, it's thefinal price for every holders if Tic founders agreed on? Re delisting, I agree. I have said manytimes that delisting is only an inconvenience, not a disaster. The delisting threat that RG made many times may have prompted some smaller shareholders to sell but quite rightly it has not changed the opinion of the remaining 12%. So yes, in the end I’m sure this will all come down to price. Of course for TIC there is the extra complication of the trial set for April 2025. I can’t guess whether RG will want to get the 100% share ownership wrapped up before the trial or wait till afterwards.

Notadvice DYOR