Hi Andrew A - You may be right, but having covered the retail sector for decades, I have seen time and time again that multiples can change significantly and quickly. (And should be higher when earnings are at cyclical lows) SFH is a good example of how things change. 12 months ago it was priced for default, and now is a market darling as they divested loss making assets and their best business is shooting the lights out. The one thing we know for sure with PGR is that they are investing for future growth (which is depressing margins), and earnings are well off their cyclical highs. We also know that Colleseum will be a willing seller over the next few years, and I would fall off my chair if they aren't expecting to get something well north of 70c, and probably want north of $1. It may sound far fetched when the price is 29c, but I suspect any banker could sell these assets at that price in a heartbeat. Remember their first bid for PGR was 64c. Then again, that's the beauty of financial markets, we all see value differently.
PGR Price at posting:
29.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
