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20/12/16
20:45
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Originally posted by bripoz
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Hi Curious... good one!
I get the strong feeling we are in talks with many...often... and the longer the results keep pouring in as they have been, the juggling of price and predator commitment keeps happening.
The 6 out of 6 result for Keytruda is simply outstanding and better than anyone would have ever predicted. However it is almost certain with a bigger population this result will reduce. No drug is effective in 100% of people. If it did, however, the value would go through the roof
One likely scenario is a company will pay a big upfront, pay for all future research and pay very big milestone along the way and a royalty at the end.
Then along the way, as milestones are met the big boys will say here is a cheque for the present value of all future milestones and royalties. They would do this once the project is de-risked. Large companies want to control the product and market.
The size of each of these payments and royalties is all down to how good the business development deal maker is. I don’t know the capabilities of management, I think perhaps our directors lack the skill but I have more confidence in the large overseas professional investors/s who know what this thing is worth... maybe they will be of significant benefit after all..... offsetting their dilutionary contribution.
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I think the uncertainty on the potential court decision on the price manipulation of the drugs against the pharma companies in the US may delay potential deals in the short term. This is the reason why biotech companies are out of favour at the moment.
Just need to be patient and wait for this storm to pass.