So this goes to show how retarded I am at stats, it's been...

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DocMcstuffins

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16/12/20

23:13

Post #: 49636201
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Originally posted by DocMcstuffins: ↑

I would be very interested to know what the all cause mortality rate was in either groups.

According to data I've seen, 3 year survival for NYHA class 2 patients is roughly 70-80%.

As they measure at 30 months you would assume their survival in the control group would be towards the higher end of that range.

Now with say, a 25% mortality rate in a subgroup of 103 patients (206 with an assumed 50/50 control), that would be say 27 people died in the control group.

For a 60% reduction in mortality, that's roughly a difference of 10 people, right?

For a mortality difference of 10 patients in cohorts of 103 per arm I don't see how they got a significance of <0.037.

I haven't plugged it into an equation, but that seems like a very small difference in an N that isn't extremely large.

I know there are some stats experts in here, I'd love to be corrected.

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So this goes to show how retarded I am at stats, it's been ages since I've done official study.

Plugged some numbers into an online calculator.

Now barring exhaustion-related errors on my part or a total misunderstanding of basic stats....

It seems going by my above assumptions you could still easily get significance from these numbers.

Very cool! Would love more info on the details of the trial once they're released.

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0 Great analysis

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