Phase II Begins, Cashed Up with Healey In the Sights of Big Pharma $$$, page-438

Hi All,
I have noticed a few new names appearing in the notifications lately, so here is a little info from the CEO regarding the potential market size for an ALS/MND treatment including the EU.

US

Market penetration for a new product for the treatment of ALS/MND then we can use the experience with Relyvrio® as our base case. Six months following launch Relyvrio® was prescribed to 4,000 patients and the target was 10,000 by the end of the first year. Of course they didn’t get there mainly because the drug was withdrawn but also because after 6 months patients were starting to discontinue use because of diarrhoea and the unpalatable taste (patients had to swallow ~240 mls of drug) of Relyvrio®. The total number of patients in the US is over 30,000.

EU
The prevalence of ALS in Europe. As part of the OMPD submission to the EMA we had to provide estimates to show that the prevalence of ALS in EU countries is well below the threshold of 50 cases per 100,000 population (1 per 2,000) for OMPD. Relying mostly on the meta-analysis by Wolfson 2023 which comprehensively identified and analyzed studies of ALS incidence or prevalence the median was 8.0 per 100,000 people.

Wolfson C, Gauvin DE, Ishola F, Oskoui M. Global Prevalence and Incidence of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: A Systematic Review. Neurology. 2023 Aug 8;101(6):e613-e623. doi: 10.1212/WNL.0000000000207474. Epub 2023 Jun 12. PubMed PMID: 37308302; PubMed Central PMCID: PMC10424837.


So in the US there are a potential 30,000 patients, with 36,000 in the EU.[Population is 450 Million]

66,000 total with an estimated combined increase of around 10,000 each year. [Being conservative, base your calculations on 50% take up]

There are no other reliable treatments on the market so ALS/MND remains an unmet need. If Monepantel continues kicking goals not only will it be best in class, it will be the only treatment available.

Current treatment guides suggest US$150, 000 per year costs.

Cheers