I think it is time to recognise that something has happened that we are not being told about in relation to ROW rights.
Last year, you will recall, it was being suggested (including from the order of events in Neuren's own slides) that a deal for ROW would come before Christmas. The rationale, of course, being that the earlier the approval process got under way in each jurisdiction, the better. That is one reason I reject the apologists' argument that the whole thing is so very complicated that it is bound to take a very long time. That's bulls**t. We've been ready for a long time.
More recently, there has been an (on-again-off-again?) suggestion of multiple licencees. But if we were looking at a number of partners, then surely by now someone somewhere would have signed up. They surely can't all be hanging tough.
Speed is important both because human beings are waiting for this treatment and also, from a more selfish perspective, because IP is a wasting asset: every month you don't use your market exclusivity is a month you have lost forever. I know people are endlessly entranced by the idea that IP can be "evergreened" but if it was as easy as that, Big Pharma, with all its power and resources, would never suffer one of its assets going generic. It regularly does. "Evergreen" is a word, not a magic spell.
Then there is the possible appearance of competition. We are keen to believe that Annevex is no threat but they are striving to change that and the best defence is to get patients enrolled and our market position established. One thing I have learnt with certainty: It is
always later than you think.
Either we are dithering about what to do for the best or there is an obstacle.
One possibility, it seems to me, is that no-one wants a drug that may well be superseded in the near future by NNZ 2591. Acadia was able to get us to agree that we would not develop and commercialise any competing treatment in North America for any indication they target with Trofinetide. (That may well cause us trouble in the future by providing Acadia with the ability to "bodycheck" us in North America. I note they are being very coy about what indications they plan to target.) No-one is going to get that deal in the ROW, given the improvement in our position, so it may well be potential licencees are waiting to see the phase II results from NNZ 2591.
The upside is that if the phase II results are negative, ROW deals for Trofinetide will follow quickly and the SP will adjust upwards better to reflect its value to us. Perhaps to about $24 or so, to take a stab. But if the phase II results are positive, the SP will adjust upwards by much more than that! So, a big boost to the SP if NNZ 2591 fails and an even bigger boost if it succeeds. A nice kind of win-win situation to be in!
(20min delay)