Personally, I think everyone may be overestimating PT personal...

Personally, I think everyone may be overestimating PT personal exposure to Opes Prime:

First:

Director Phillip Thomas has advised the Company that entities associated with him have a margin lending arrangement with Opes Prime with a facility balance of $2.85 million , with a current gearing ratio of 55%. It is now expected that this margin loan will need to be repaid or refinanced as a result of Opes Prime Group Limited being placed into receivership.

Source: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080328/pdf/3188jybnjmkqmq.pdf

Second:

As I have declared on the ASX I hold 47 million ADY shares which makes this portfolio worth $9.4m alone. As declared I have no other debt.(Phil Thomas)

Source: http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_threadview.asp?fid=1&tid=644274#2699475


Third:

Fortunately I have been successful in my career so i don't need to refinance all just some of the loan - i will retain part of the loan, and do it as a gearing effect for my total portfolio. I only have a portion with Opes (the rest are not collateralised - about $7m worth) about $4.21m. (Phil Thomas)

Source: http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_threadview.asp?fid=1&tid=644834#2702990

My Analysis:

- PT has 47M shares which in the third quote he values at $11.21M. This places a value of $0.24 per share when he calculated those values;

- Consequently, from the 3rd quote, PT has approx 16.77M ADY shares with Opes Prime (47M x 4 / 11.21 ) and approx an additional 29.3M ADY shares elsewhere;

- In the first quote, he says he has a loan of $2.85M with Opes Prime;

- Consequently, using Fridys closing price of $0.20, I calculate PT exposure to opes Prime as follows:

16.77 ADY shares @ $0.20 = $3.35M
less: Loan.................$2.85M
Net Personal Exposure......$0.50M

If I read it correctly, ANZ will try and sell his shares and offset the proceeds from the sale against his loan. If they get $0.20 for the shares then Opes Prime will owe him $0.5M, an amount he will rank as an unsecured creditor for. Consequently, his loss will most likely be less than this.

If they sell his shares for less than $0.20 his exposure will be less. He loose those shares. However, PT has indicated he will refinance the loan. Consequently, if he were to buy the 16.7M ADY shares off the receiver, directly or on market, his loss would only be limited to the shortfall of the liquidator's payout against this amount.

I guess it all depends on PT's ability to raise additional funds to purchase an equivalent number of shares.

Nevertheless, going from the above quotes, PT appears to have an additional 29.3M ADY shares elsewhere. That should still provide PT with significnt incentive to see ADY succeed. I am much happier when I know the Directors success is aligned with the shareholders success.

Would like to see ADY release a report showing all future funding required to bring its projects to development and expected sources of those funds.

My thoughts are with those who have investments tied up in the Opes Prime mess. Hope things don't turnout too much of a disaster.

Regards

SP



Th