Stock head isn't my first choice of reference but they're quoting what seems to be a reliable knowledgeable source. This is a long, long way from over.After a stunning 2022, sentiment has been damaged in 2023 as lithium prices in China retreat despite a continued expansion in EV sales.
But ‘Mr Lithium’ Joe Lowry, who saw the lithium sector grow from a US$200 million when he entered the game in 1990 to US$1b by 2015 and over US$40 billion today, believes lithium supply will continue to disappoint even as Governments and automakers in the USA and Europe throw money at the sector.
“Everybody knows they have a lithium problem and we’ve seen this year at the beginning of the year, extreme volatility in the China spot market,” he said in a keynote at Vertical Events and Tribeca Investment Partners’ inaugural Resource Connect Asia event in Singapore today.
“What’s that all about? I think you’re going see volatility in the lithium space going forward. I believe honestly, that China’s tried to create a false narrative to talk the lithium price down.
“It’s going to be interesting, but … the way I look at the numbers we’re in a shortage for the rest of this decade.
“And even though there may be mismatches between supply and demand and pricing, making it volatile, the long term lithium price is going to tend towards high and not low.”
World needs 13 additional Pilbara Minerals-sized producers by 2025While Lowry’s own projections are more conservative, he noted that Albemarle, America’s largest and quickest horse in the lithium game, says 1.8Mt of lithium carbonate equivalent will be needed by 2025 to meet demand.
By 2030 it thinks 3.7Mt will be needed — 10x 2020 levels — matching 4700GWh of battery capacity from EVs and energy storage technology, up from 690GWh last year.
“If we framed Albemarle’s numbers in terms of what it’s going to take from a project perspective to meet that demand, 1.8 million tons in 2025 would be 1.1 million tonnes more than the market produced last year,” Lowry noted.
“That would take 25 world class brine projects to come online in three years. I promise you that is not going to happen.
https://unauthorised investment advice/resources/mr-lithium-china-is-creating-a-false-narrative-to-talk-down-lithium-prices-as-industry-struggles-to-build-mines-on-time/
