We were told in the webinar that Macquarie would start talks as soon as the website went live.
They said it would be near the end of July so Aug 3rd was on time.
Nick said they expected at least 10Mt although the 12 number was mentioned as well.
We got 12.4Mt.
He said grade should be 400 plus and he would be happy with anything between 400 and 450.
We got 437ppm.
He's also met targets on acres under contract over the last two years.
He clearly has kept expectations in check at all times and either delivered or over delivered on everything that he had given guidance on, as far as I can recall. That bodes well for our valuation.
Hard rock and more advanced projects are valued at $516/t. Im assuming that number came from Macquarie. A range of A$250-300/t seems reasonable for this earlier stage, brine project given the high grade, very large resource with the very high proportion of 8.3Mt out of the 12.4Mt being in the indicated category and being located in the best possible location globally for government incentives and security.
$250/t equates to A$3.1bill or US$2.077bill (at 67c AUD conversion). That is just over 41 times our investment. Better than I kept thinking was a likely base case of 20 times - and that 41 times our investment is at the bottom end of the $250-300/t range.
At $300/t, it's US$2.5bill or 50 times our investment. It could be higher and it could be lower. Best not to get expectations too high but
I think we should all allow for a big tax bill this year.
Anyone that bought just a single share at around $12,000 on the seed capital is looking at a potential $490-600k return on that one share. Almost unbelievable.
Let's hope Nick delivers on this final target as well as he's delivered on everything else.
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