Apologies in advance for my long post here.
Firstly, I believe Nick has sufficient funds to settle $100 million worth of properties, and he wouldn't be in a rush to participate in the Carnival race.
His LinkedIn profile suggests that in the past, Nick worked as a dealmaker to entities worldwide. This appears to be a significant personal deal for him, being a major shareholder.
On his LinkedIn page, Nick reacted to Gary Travis, saying, "Keep it private until it's done. Hustle in secret. You're not doing it for other people." We know Nick likes to keep things in stealth mode.
Let me start with Lithium Power: on September 28, LPI granted Codelco permission for continue due diligence and after 3 weeks, yesterday, the takeover deal announced.
Now with Phoenix, on 30/08/2023, AFR published article in Street Talk, let's assume the process officially kicked off on 30/08/2023.
The hypothetical process I can think between September 1 and September 22:- Macquarie reached out to 60 potential interested parties.
- Initial confidentiality agreements were signed.
- Macquarie may conducted roadshow presentation.
- Parties may conducted preliminary due diligence.
- Macquarie may held one-on-one sessions with interested parties.
From September 22, 2023, to October 2, 2023:- Macquarie may have encouraged parties to provide detailed proposals.
- Parties may have submitted detailed proposals.
- Phoenix may have reviewed the initial proposals.
From this point on, the important thing is to identify the type of proposal received. Say,
Type 1: Received only smaller interests from various parties, such as a 5% stake at a certain valuation or off-take agreements. I don't think Nick will entertain these and will wait for a more significant proposal. Selling 5% of the company won't help him settle the $100 million in properties. He might consider an IPO route instead.
Type 2: Received offers for full acquisition at a lower valuation.
Type 3: Received aggressive interest from multiple parties, but major anticipated corporate houses haven't participated yet.
Type 4: Received aggressive interest from big corporates.
